Bainbridge Island January 2026 Luxury Real Estate Market Report

January 2026

TL;DR: January's 16 residential home sales landed at the low end of our forecast, down from December's 20 transactions and January 2025's 18 sales—confirming the seasonal floor. The median price of $918K—down 17% from December's $1.100M—reflected heavy concentration in the sub-$1M segment (56% of volume) rather than per-property value erosion, while the mean sale price of $1.140M confirms higher-value properties held firm. Properties moved in a median 38 days—36% faster than last January's 59-day pace—demonstrating sustained buyer urgency even during the year's slowest month. The 99.0% list-to-sale ratio maintains near-full pricing power, and with just 0.9 months of inventory across 15 active listings, Bainbridge enters February in its tightest supply position since summer.

Market Overview

January delivered the expected seasonal floor, with volume and composition tracking our December forecast precisely while velocity and pricing fundamentals remained remarkably resilient for deep winter.

Key Statistics

January's $918K median—representing a 17% month-over-month decline from December's $1.100M and 31% year-over-year decrease from last January's $1.338M—is the clearest example of composition-driven pricing we've documented. Nine properties (56% of January's volume) sold below $1M, including a $535K off-island-style property and a $582K fixer-upper, compared to just three sub-$1M transactions (17% of volume) in January 2025. Meanwhile, January produced only two luxury sales ($2M+) versus last January's six. The mean sale price of $1.140M—$222K above the median—confirms that higher-value properties maintained strength while the median was pulled downward by entry-level transaction concentration.

The velocity story is January's most compelling signal: 38 days represents a 36% improvement over last January's 59-day pace. While slower than December's exceptional 23-day median—which itself represented a seasonal anomaly—January's 38-day absorption demonstrates that buyers entering the market during the slowest period are acting with conviction. Properties priced at market value aren't languishing; they're finding motivated buyers within five weeks even during the depths of winter.

The list-to-sale ratio held essentially steady at 99.0%—virtually indistinguishable from December's 99.1% and marginally above last January's 98.9%. This stability across three very different market conditions (peak fall, holiday, deep winter) confirms structural pricing power rather than seasonal luck. Sellers who price accurately continue achieving near-full asking; the modest sub-100% median reflects a handful of properties that required price adjustments after extended market time rather than broad buyer resistance.

Transaction volume of 16 sales—a 20% decline from December's 20 and 11% below last January's 18—landed precisely at the low end of our December forecast range (16–19). This validates the predictable seasonal rhythm: January has historically been Bainbridge's lowest-volume month, and 2026 confirmed the pattern without any alarming deviation. With 15 active listings producing just 0.9 months of inventory—down from December's 1.2 months and representing the tightest supply position since the summer selling season—the market enters February with constrained supply and building demand potential.

Luxury Market Segment ($2M+)

The luxury market ($2M and above) demonstrated selective but decisive activity in January with two sales in the $2.4M range:

• Luxury Homes Sold: 2 properties
• Median Luxury Price: $2.438M
• Price Range: $2.425M – $2.450M
• Average Days on Market (Luxury): 56 days

Notable Luxury Sales

While respecting privacy, here are compelling transactions that showcase market trends:

Seabold Waterfront – $2.450M

• 4 bed / 4.75 bath / 4,218 sqft on ~1 acre
• 200'+ bulkheaded low-bank saltwater waterfront with Olympic Mountain and Sound views, mooring buoy, and private beach cove
• Sold at 98% of asking in 47 days
• What this tells us: January's sole waterfront luxury transaction validates that exceptional waterfront properties command premium positioning regardless of season. The 47-day timeline and near-asking sale—during the year's slowest month—confirms that qualified waterfront buyers operate on their own schedule, not the calendar's. With 200'+ of shoreline, this property represents the type of irreplaceable asset that attracts serious buyers year-round. The 2% negotiation from asking reflects appropriate winter buyer leverage, not weakness.

New Construction Eagledale – $2.425M

• 4 bed / 4.25 bath / 4,441 sqft on 1.5 acres
• South-facing new build with flexible layout, second primary suite on main floor, chef's kitchen, and EV charging
• Sold at 97% of asking in 66 days (originally listed at $2.647M, reduced to $2.499M)
• What this tells us: This transaction illustrates two critical luxury market dynamics. First, even premium new construction must align with market expectations—the 8% reduction from original asking to final list price was necessary to generate buyer engagement. Second, once priced appropriately, serious buyers materialized within nine weeks, demonstrating that the $2.4M price point has genuine depth even in January. The non-waterfront positioning at this price level confirms buyers will pay $2.4M+ for exceptional quality, privacy, and acreage on Bainbridge without requiring water access.

Near-Luxury Highlights

Baker Hill Estate – $1.975M

• 3 bed / 3.5 bath / 3,434 sqft on 1.1 acres
• Custom-built with Mt. Rainier and Sound views, park-like grounds with Bocce court, 3 fountains, and secluded firepit area
• Sold at 100% of asking in 46 days
• What this tells us: The full-price sale at $1.975M—just $25K shy of the luxury threshold—in 46 days demonstrates serious buyer commitment to quality estates. This property didn't require a single dollar of price adjustment, validating that the near-$2M segment has confident, motivated buyers during winter when they can evaluate properties without spring's competitive pressure.

Rolling Bay Craftsman – $1.520M

• 4 bed / 3 bath / 3,169 sqft
• Private Craftsman-style home with sophisticated finishes, cook's kitchen, and large front porch
• Sold at 101.5% of asking in 3 days
• What this tells us: January's fastest sale—above asking in just three days—demonstrates that move-in ready homes in desirable neighborhoods still generate urgency even during the slowest month. This over-ask sale in Rolling Bay confirms that well-positioned properties in the $1.5M range can bypass seasonal slowdown entirely when quality, condition, and pricing converge.

Waterfront vs. Non-Waterfront Analysis

January's waterfront segment experienced the expected deep-winter contraction, with transaction volume dropping sharply from December's robust activity:

Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 2 properties (vs. 9 in Dec '25, ~3 in Jan '25)
• Median Waterfront Price: $1.820M
• Average Days on Market: 59 days
• Months of Waterfront Inventory: ~1.0 months (2 active waterfront listings)

Non-Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 14 properties
• Median Price: $900K
• Average Days on Market: 30 days (median)

Waterfront Premium: January's two waterfront transactions produced a $920,000 premium representing 102% over non-waterfront properties—directionally consistent with December's 95% premium, though the small sample demands cautious interpretation. The more significant insight lies in volume: waterfront transactions dropped from 45% of December's volume (9 of 20 sales) to just 13% of January's volume (2 of 16)—a 78% decline in waterfront transaction share.

This contraction follows predictable winter patterns. The premium waterfront buyer pool—disproportionately composed of out-of-market purchasers from California, Arizona, and greater Seattle—retreats further during January than the broader market. These buyers typically visit during spring and summer when Bainbridge's waterfront lifestyle is most compelling, making deep winter the natural low point for this segment.

What's notable: despite the volume contraction, the $2.450M Seabold waterfront sale achieved 98% of asking in 47 days, and the $1.189M Rolling Bay water-view property secured 100% of its list price. Neither transaction showed distress pricing or unusual buyer resistance—waterfront demand didn't disappear, it simply contracted to the most motivated and decisive buyers. With only two waterfront listings currently active ($1.200M Eagle Harbor and $1.495M on Reitan Rd), waterfront inventory remains exceptionally scarce, positioning this segment for renewed competition once spring buyer activity emerges.

Year-over-year, waterfront volume held approximately steady (2 sales versus ~3 in January 2025), confirming that deep winter typically produces 2–3 waterfront transactions—the genuine seasonal floor for this segment. December's nine waterfront sales now appear even more remarkable in context, representing an anomalous surge of year-end purchasing rather than sustainable winter velocity.

Neighborhood Spotlight

January's activity concentrated in established neighborhoods, with Winslow and Rolling Bay accounting for half of island-wide volume:

Winslow

• Properties Sold: 4
• Price Range: $489K – $1.220M
• Median Price: $861K
• Notable Trends: Winslow maintained its position as January's most active neighborhood, spanning new construction townhomes ($489K, $787K) through established homes ($935K, $1.220M). The neighborhood's diverse price spectrum—from entry-level to upper-mid—demonstrates continued broad appeal across buyer segments. The new construction townhome at $787K sold in 0 days (pre-marketed), while the $1.220M property at 170 days on market reflects the pricing patience required when initial positioning exceeds buyer expectations. Winslow's walkability to ferries, dining, and shopping remains Bainbridge's most consistent demand driver regardless of season.

Rolling Bay

• Properties Sold: 2
• Price Range: $1.189M – $1.520M
• Median Price: $1.355M
• Notable Trends: Rolling Bay delivered January's most dramatic contrast in buyer behavior. The $1.520M Craftsman sold at 101.5% of asking in just 3 days—January's fastest and only above-asking sale—while the $1.189M Sunrise Dr property with sweeping Puget Sound views required 71 days and a reduction from its original $1.379M asking to find its buyer. The divergence illustrates a consistent theme: move-in ready homes in prime condition generate urgency at any time of year, while view properties requiring pricing adjustment face extended timelines during winter's contracted buyer pool.

Seabold

• Properties Sold: 2
• Price Range: $900K – $2.450M
• Median Price: $1.675M
• Notable Trends: Seabold showcased January's widest price range within a single neighborhood. The $2.450M waterfront estate—with 200'+ of bulkheaded shoreline—closed as the month's highest sale, confirming Seabold's position among Bainbridge's premier waterfront enclaves. Meanwhile, a $900K non-waterfront home on Hidden Cove Lane sold in 17 days at 97% of asking, demonstrating that Seabold's appeal extends beyond its waterfront properties to include established homes near community beaches and the Grand Forest trail system. The neighborhood continues attracting buyers seeking proximity to both natural amenities and north-end community infrastructure.

Market Dynamics: What's Driving Activity

Several factors shaped January's performance:

1. Forecast-Validated Seasonal Floor January's 16 transactions landed precisely at the low end of our December forecast range (16–19), confirming that Bainbridge's seasonal rhythms remain predictable and healthy. The 20% decline from December's 20 sales and 11% decrease from last January's 18 follows textbook winter deceleration—the market's annual reset before spring reactivation. What distinguishes January 2026 from typical deep-winter months is the 36% velocity improvement over last January: properties that did transact moved at 38-day median pace versus 59 days a year ago, suggesting the buyer base entering 2026 is more prepared and decisive than the cohort that navigated January 2025's higher interest rate uncertainty. Sellers who listed through winter found their audience; they simply found a smaller one.
2. Composition-Driven Median Masking Per-Property Stability January's 56% sub-$1M transaction concentration—the highest monthly share we've documented—drove the $918K median to levels that don't reflect actual per-property value movements. Seven of nine sub-$1M sales closed within 3% of asking price, confirming these weren't distressed transactions but rather entry-level and mid-market properties transacting at their appropriate values. The $1.140M mean—24% above the median—demonstrates that the overall value distribution remained healthy. When comparing like-for-like, January's two luxury sales achieved 97–98% of asking, the $1.975M Baker Hill estate achieved exactly 100%, and the $1.520M Rolling Bay Craftsman achieved 101.5%. Values are holding; the median composition simply shifted toward affordable segments as luxury and waterfront buyer pools contracted for winter.
3. Structural Pricing Power Through Deep Winter The 99.0% list-to-sale ratio—essentially unchanged from December's 99.1% and marginally above last January's 98.9%—represents the most telling indicator of underlying market health. Across 16 very different transactions spanning $489K to $2.450M, sellers maintained near-complete pricing power. Even the properties requiring significant price reductions from original asking (the $1.220M Winslow home originally listed at $1.490M, the $2.425M Eagledale new build originally at $2.647M) ultimately sold within 3–10% of their adjusted list prices, not their original ambitions. The message is consistent with December: the market rewards accurate pricing with decisive results and penalizes aspirational pricing with extended timelines—but it doesn't collapse into deep discounting regardless of season.
4. Pre-Spring Inventory Compression Setting Up February Competition January's 0.9 months of inventory—a 25% tightening from December's 1.2 months—represents the most constrained supply position since summer 2025's peak activity. With only 15 active listings ranging from $839K to $3.600M, buyers entering February face exceptionally limited choices. The inventory compression reflects two converging dynamics: winter's typically low listing activity (sellers waiting for spring's optimal conditions) combined with steady absorption that cleared available stock without replenishment. Only two waterfront properties remain active, and just five listings sit above $1.5M. This positions February and March for potential competitive conditions as buyer demand reactivates against insufficient supply—a dynamic that historically favors sellers who list early in the spring window before inventory normalizes.

Looking Ahead: February 2026 Forecast

Based on current market indicators and typical seasonal reactivation patterns, here's what I anticipate for February:

For Buyers:

• Expect 18–22 transactions as early-spring reactivation begins, driven by buyers who postponed winter purchases and new relocators entering the market. The post-holiday psychological reset is real—February typically sees renewed buyer activity even before weather improves, as serious purchasers recognize they're running out of pre-spring opportunity.
• The 0.9 months of inventory means you're entering February with the tightest supply position since summer. Competition will increase, particularly for move-in ready properties under $1.5M where the majority of January's demand concentrated. If you find a property that checks your boxes, move decisively—the 3-day sale of Rolling Bay's Craftsman at above asking demonstrates that well-priced homes don't wait for spring to generate multiple interested parties.
• Waterfront buyers have a narrow but real window: only two waterfront listings are currently active, and waterfront transaction volume should rebound to 3–5 sales as the spring buyer pool begins to emerge. Acting in February means fewer competing offers than you'll face in April–June, though your selection will be limited.

For Sellers:

• February represents the earliest strategic listing window for spring 2026. Listings hitting the market in mid-to-late February capture the first wave of reactivating buyers against still-constrained inventory (15 active listings). You'll benefit from reduced seller competition—the agents waiting for March to list will face more competing inventory.
• The 99.0% list-to-sale ratio through January means pricing accuracy remains non-negotiable. January's data was unambiguous: properties priced at market value sold at 100–101% of asking in 1–46 days; properties priced above market required 66–170 days and 3–10% reductions. February's reactivating buyer pool may tolerate 1–2% aspirational pricing; they won't tolerate 5–8%.
• Waterfront sellers should prepare for spring now. With only two waterfront listings active, fresh waterfront inventory hitting the market in February–March will generate significant attention. The $2.450M Seabold waterfront closing at 98% of asking in January confirms that serious waterfront buyers remain active—spring will amplify that demand substantially.

Overall Market Prediction:

February should deliver 18–22 transactions—a 12–38% increase from January's 16 as reactivation begins. New listings should appear at a measured pace, pushing active inventory to 18–24 properties while months of supply stabilizes around 1.0–1.2 months—still firmly in seller's market territory. Median pricing should recover toward $1.0M–$1.2M as luxury and upper-mid transactions increase their share of the mix, with the specific median driven more by composition normalization than per-property appreciation.

Waterfront activity should rebound to 3–5 transactions as the spring buyer pool begins to materialize, with early-season waterfront listings generating strong interest against minimal competing inventory. Days on market should stabilize in the 25–40 day range as buyer urgency increases while the broader buyer pool expands from January's narrow winter core.

Looking toward spring 2026, the fundamentals are compelling. January confirmed the seasonal floor without revealing any structural weakness: velocity improved 36% year-over-year, pricing power held at 99.0%, and inventory compressed to 0.9 months. These indicators—combined with sustained interest from out-of-market buyers, continued waterfront scarcity, and Bainbridge's enduring appeal as a Seattle-adjacent sanctuary—suggest spring 2026 will open with genuine momentum. I anticipate March transaction volume climbing toward 24–28 monthly closings, with median prices returning to the $1.1M–$1.4M range as luxury and waterfront transactions resume their normal share of island-wide activity.

Properties hitting the market fresh in February and March will capture pent-up demand from buyers who sat out the December–January slowdown. The combination of compressed inventory, proven pricing power, and accelerating velocity positions well-prepared sellers for favorable outcomes as the market transitions from its seasonal low point to spring's characteristic energy.

Strategic Takeaways

If you're thinking of buying:

January represented the tightest inventory environment (0.9 months) during the year's slowest transaction period—a combination that creates both challenge and opportunity. The challenge: only 15 active listings means your selection is genuinely limited, particularly in specific segments. Just five listings above $1.5M, two waterfront properties, and a handful of sub-$1M options mean you may not find exactly what you want until spring brings new listings. The opportunity: buying now, before February–March reactivation, means you're competing against the year's smallest buyer pool. January's 99.0% list-to-sale ratio confirms you won't find deep discounts, but you'll have time for thorough due diligence and face minimal competition—luxuries that disappear once spring's multiple-offer dynamics emerge.

The velocity data should inform your strategy: January's 38-day median means well-priced properties still moved within five weeks, but the range was wide—from 0 days (pre-marketed new construction) to 170 days (overpriced properties requiring adjustment). Properties sitting at 60+ days on market represent your strongest negotiating opportunities, as sellers who listed in fall and remain unsold through January have already experienced the market's feedback on their pricing. However, expect that move-in ready homes priced at market value will still attract decisive competing interest—January's 3-day, above-asking Rolling Bay sale proves that quality defies seasonality.

For waterfront buyers, February represents a genuine window before competition intensifies. With just two waterfront listings active and waterfront transaction volume at its seasonal floor (2 sales in January), you'll face the year's least crowded conditions. Spring will bring more waterfront listings but also substantially more buyers—particularly the out-of-market purchasers from California and Arizona who typically activate March through August. If you're prepared to act on available waterfront inventory now, you avoid the competitive dynamics that drove December's nine waterfront transactions, several of which attracted near-full or above-asking offers.

If you're thinking of selling:

January's data offers a clear strategic playbook for 2026. The 99.0% list-to-sale ratio—sustained through the slowest month of the year—confirms that Bainbridge's pricing structure remains sound. But the data also reveals a sharp divide: properties priced at market value achieved 100–101.5% of asking in 0–46 days, while those priced above comparables required 66–170 days and significant reductions. This isn't new information, but January's contrast was the most stark we've documented—there was no middle ground between decisive sales and extended waiting.

If you're considering a February listing, you're positioning against exceptionally favorable supply dynamics. At 0.9 months of inventory with only 15 active listings, the market is starved for fresh options. Buyers who remained active through winter are highly motivated—they've been watching limited choices for weeks and will respond to quality listings that match their criteria. The key: price at true market value confirmed by recent comparable sales, not at your aspirational number. January proved that even a $25K overprice can add months to your timeline during winter, while accurate pricing delivers full-value results regardless of season.

Waterfront sellers have particular leverage. With only two waterfront listings active island-wide, a fresh waterfront listing in February captures attention that would be diffused across 8–10 competing waterfront properties by May. December's $2.450M South Beach and January's $2.450M Seabold waterfront both achieved 98% of asking, confirming that qualified waterfront buyers exist year-round and will pay near-full freight for quality properties. The 47–59 day waterfront timeline requires patience, but the reduced competition for buyer attention during pre-spring months offers strategic advantage that disappears once inventory normalizes in April.

For sellers planning spring listings, begin preparation now: staging consultations, pre-listing inspections, cosmetic updates, and professional photography should be scheduled in February for March launches. Properties hitting the market fresh in early March will capture the first wave of spring demand against still-constrained inventory—the optimal positioning window before new listings surge in April and diffuse buyer attention.

The bottom line:

January closed 2025's seasonal cycle with a clean confirmation of the market's underlying health. Sixteen transactions—precisely forecasted—represented the year's lowest volume without revealing any structural vulnerability. The 31% year-over-year median decline to $918K demands the same nuanced interpretation we've emphasized in recent months: when 56% of your transactions close below $1M (versus just 17% last January), the median reflects who's buying, not what properties are worth. The $1.140M mean, 99.0% list-to-sale ratio, and full-price sales of the Baker Hill estate ($1.975M) and Rolling Bay Craftsman ($1.520M at 101.5% of asking) tell the actual value story.

What January revealed most clearly is the market's readiness for spring. Three metrics stand out: First, the 36% velocity improvement over last January (38 days versus 59) signals buyers entering 2026 with greater confidence and preparation than a year ago. Second, the 99.0% list-to-sale ratio through deep winter—the most challenging month for maintaining pricing power—confirms that Bainbridge's seller-favorable dynamics are structural, not seasonal. Third, the 0.9 months of inventory represents a supply compression that historically precedes competitive spring conditions. When buyers reactivate in February and March against insufficient inventory, the dynamics favor sellers who move early and price accurately.

Waterfront's deep-winter retreat—two transactions versus December's nine—followed the expected pattern without suggesting any erosion in waterfront desirability or premium positioning. The $2.450M Seabold waterfront closing at 98% of asking in 47 days confirmed that qualified waterfront buyers don't pause for the calendar. With only two waterfront listings active heading into February, this segment enters spring positioned for renewed competition and sustained premiums as the out-of-market buyer pool reactivates.

For sellers, January's message crystallized what we've been documenting: strategic pricing delivers predictable results; aspirational pricing delivers frustration. For buyers, the window of reduced competition is narrowing—February's reactivation will bring more choices but also more competitors. For both, the fundamentals entering 2026 are sound: limited housing supply, sustained premium for quality and waterfront access, faster absorption than a year ago, and an island market that continues attracting buyers willing to pay for the Bainbridge lifestyle.

Your Questions Answered

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Market data sourced from NWMLS for single-family residential homes (condos excluded). Analysis and insights by Jake Aspinwall, Windermere Real Estate.