Bainbridge Island November 2025 Luxury Real Estate Market Report

November 2025

TL;DR: November's 26 home sales matched last year's transaction volume, though the median price of $1.327M reflected a different sales mix than November 2024's more luxury-weighted $1.56M. The market showed remarkable velocity with homes selling in a median of just 12 days—78% faster than last year's 53-day pace—while waterfront properties demonstrated exceptional strength with a 43% premium over non-waterfront homes. At less than one month of inventory, Bainbridge remains firmly in seller's market territory as we move into winter's traditionally quieter period.

Market Overview

November proved that Bainbridge Island's market strength isn't confined to spring and summer. Despite entering the traditional winter slowdown, properties moved at nearly three times the velocity we saw last November.

Key Statistics

The year-over-year median price comparison requires context: November 2025's $1.327M median versus last year's $1.56M reflects transaction composition rather than value depreciation. This November saw five luxury sales ($2M+) clustered in the $2.1M–$3.9M range, while November 2024 was heavily weighted with ultra-luxury waterfront transactions above $3M. The month-over-month 3.6% increase from October's $1.28M more accurately reflects current pricing fundamentals.

What's undeniable is the market's extraordinary velocity. The 78% decrease in average days on market—from 53 days last November to just 12 days this year—signals sustained buyer urgency despite the calendar. The 100% list-to-sale ratio demonstrates that well-priced properties are achieving full asking price, a dynamic that persisted from October and improved from last year's 98% ratio. This combination of rapid absorption and full-price sales confirms robust demand even as we enter the winter months.

Transaction volume remained remarkably consistent: 26 sales this November matched exactly with last year, while October's 27 transactions shows minimal seasonal deceleration. With less than one month of active inventory—approximately 20 properties competing for serious buyers—Bainbridge continues operating in a clear seller's market. The fundamentals remain strong: motivated buyers, limited supply, and pricing power firmly on the seller's side heading into December.

Luxury Market Segment ($2M+)

The luxury market ($2M and above) demonstrated focused activity in November with five sales spanning from $2.15M to $3.94M:

• Luxury Homes Sold: 5 properties
• Median Luxury Price: $2.500M
• Price Range: $2.15M – $3.94M
• Average Days on Market (Luxury): 21 days

Notable Luxury Sales

While respecting privacy, here are some compelling transactions that showcase market trends:

Derby Downs – $3.94M

• 5 bed / 5.5 bath / 7,515 sqft
• City, mountain, and pond views on 2+ acres
• Sold at 98.5% of asking in 49 days
• What this tells us: Ultra-luxury estate properties above $3.5M still attract discerning buyers willing to wait for the right property, though the 49-day timeline reflects the narrower buyer pool at this price point. The near-asking-price sale demonstrates strong fundamentals even in the upper stratosphere.

Wing Point – $2.50M

• 3 bed / 2.5 bath / 3,150 sqft
• New construction (2025) with territorial views
• Sold at asking price on day one
• What this tells us: Premium new construction in coveted neighborhoods like Wing Point commands immediate attention. Zero days on market signals that quality properties with modern finishes in prime locations bypass the market entirely when priced accurately.

Port Madison Bay – $2.50M

• 3 bed / 1.8 bath / 2,124 sqft waterfront
• 75 feet of bay frontage with dock
• Sold at asking price
• What this tells us: Waterfront properties with dock access—regardless of modest square footage—maintain exceptional value. This Craftsman cottage demonstrates that location and water access trump size in buyer priorities, particularly in the luxury waterfront segment where scarcity drives premium pricing.

Pleasant Beach Waterfront – $2.30M

• 4 bed / 2.5 bath / 3,070 sqft
• 71 feet of Sound frontage, fully refreshed 1915 classic
• Sold at 92% of asking in 14 days
• What this tells us: Even premier waterfront locations see modest negotiation in the $2M+ range when list prices exceed market absorption. The 14-day timeline and sale at 92% of asking suggests buyers maintain some leverage at higher price points, making accurate initial pricing crucial for sellers.

Sunrise Waterfront – $2.15M

• 3 bed / 2 bath / 1,751 sqft
• 100+ feet of bulkheaded waterfront with mountain and Sound views
• Sold at asking price
• What this tells us: Entry-level luxury waterfront (sub-$2.5M with significant water frontage) represents exceptional value for buyers seeking the waterfront lifestyle. At asking-price terms, this sale confirms that well-positioned waterfront properties under $2.5M face minimal buyer resistance.

Waterfront vs. Non-Waterfront Analysis

Bainbridge Island's waterfront properties demonstrated their enduring premium positioning:

Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 7 properties (vs. 7 in Nov '24)
• Median Waterfront Price: $1.900M (up from ~$1.85M last year)
• Average Days on Market: 42 days (vs. 48 days in Nov '24)
• Months of Waterfront Inventory: ~0.9 months

Non-Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 19 properties
• Median Price: $1.325M
• Average Days on Market: 7 days

Waterfront Premium: The numbers tell a compelling story about scarcity-driven value. Waterfront properties commanded a $575,000 premium over non-waterfront homes—a substantial 43% price differential that underscores the limited supply of water-access properties on Bainbridge. This premium held steady year-over-year while waterfront properties actually improved their time-to-sale metrics, dropping from 48 days last November to 42 days this year.

What's particularly striking is the velocity divergence: non-waterfront homes are moving in just 7 days (a true hot market pace), while waterfront properties require 42 days on average. This isn't weakness—it's the reality of a smaller, more selective buyer pool at higher price points. Waterfront buyers are making considered decisions on properties that often exceed $2M, yet they're still moving 13% faster than they did last year.

The tight waterfront inventory—less than one month of supply—ensures these premiums will persist. Out-of-market buyers from Los Angeles, Silicon Valley, and Phoenix continue viewing Bainbridge waterfront as exceptional value compared to their home markets, where comparable water access would command substantially higher premiums. For sellers with waterfront properties, the combination of scarcity, sustained premium pricing, and improving absorption times makes this an opportune moment to consider listing.

Neighborhood Spotlight

This month, several neighborhoods saw notable activity:

Winslow

• Properties Sold: 5
• Price Range: $749K – $1.328M
• Median Price: $965K
• Notable Trends: In-town convenience continues driving demand, with the median 7-day sale timeline reflecting strong buyer appetite for walkability to the ferry, restaurants, and shops. The mix from new townhomes at $749K to renovated classics at $1.328M shows Winslow's broad appeal across buyer segments.

Hillandale

• Properties Sold: 3
• Price Range: $1.160M – $1.325M
• Median Price: $1.287M
• Notable Trends: This desirable neighborhood delivered the fastest absorption in November with a median 4-day sale timeline. Proximity to schools, parks, and bike paths makes Hillandale particularly attractive to families, and the tight price clustering suggests consistent value recognition among buyers.

Rolling Bay

• Properties Sold: 3
• Price Range: $601K – $1.925M
• Median Price: $1.778M
• Notable Trends: Rolling Bay's wide price range reflects diverse housing stock from condos to luxury estates. The 24-day median timeline suggests buyers in this neighborhood are making thoughtful decisions across various property types and price points.

Manzanita

• Properties Sold: 2
• Price Range: $1.200M – $1.300M
• Median Price: $1.250M
• Notable Trends: This neighborhood's 12-day median sale timeline and tight price clustering demonstrate consistent demand for mid-luxury properties with easy island-wide access. Manzanita continues attracting buyers seeking a balance of privacy and convenience.

Market Dynamics: What's Driving Activity

Several factors are influencing the current market:

1. Winter Market Defying Seasonal Norms

   Historically, November marks the beginning of Bainbridge's slowest period—vacation buyers retreat, inventory appears higher relative to sales, and days on market extend. This November shattered that pattern. The 12-day median sale timeline represents the kind of velocity typically reserved for peak summer months, not the winter slowdown. This suggests fundamental demand strength rather than seasonal buying pressure. Serious buyers—many relocating or timing purchases to specific life events—don't pause for the calendar, and limited inventory means even November listings face competition.

2. Inventory Scarcity Maintaining Pricing Power

   With approximately 20 active listings serving the entire island, sellers maintain significant leverage. Less than one month of inventory confirms a textbook seller's market, where limited choices force buyers to act decisively on quality properties. This scarcity is particularly acute in the waterfront segment, where less than one month of supply ensures sustained premiums. The 100% list-to-sale ratio validates that sellers who price strategically are achieving full asking price, a dynamic unlikely to shift dramatically as we close out 2025.

3. Full-Price Sales as the New Standard

   November's 100% list-to-sale ratio—matching October and improving on last year's 98%—demonstrates that negotiating leverage has firmly shifted to sellers. Buyers can't successfully lowball in this environment; well-priced properties receive full-price offers, often with minimal contingencies. This doesn't mean buyers are overpaying—it means that list prices are reflecting true market value, and properties priced accurately bypass price negotiations entirely. For sellers, this underscores the importance of strategic initial pricing: overprice and you'll sit, but price at market and you'll achieve full asking.

4. Waterfront Segment Resilience

   The 43% waterfront premium—$575,000 in absolute terms—demonstrates enduring value recognition for water access. Even more telling is the improving velocity: 42 days versus last November's 48 days. This segment isn't slowing; it's attracting the right buyers willing to pay substantial premiums for limited-supply waterfront. The three waterfront sales in the luxury segment ($2.15M–$2.50M) all closed at or near asking price, confirming robust demand. For out-of-market buyers from California and Phoenix, Bainbridge waterfront represents exceptional relative value compared to their home markets.

Looking Ahead: December Forecast

Based on current market indicators, here's what I anticipate for December:

For Buyers:

• Expect continued competition even during the holidays—serious sellers aren't pulling properties for the winter when inventory is this tight. Your due diligence window remains compressed; homes priced well will still move quickly.
• The 100% list-to-sale ratio means lowball offers won't succeed. Come prepared with competitive terms and minimal contingencies if you find the right property.
• Waterfront properties will require patience (40+ days typical) but also represent your best negotiating opportunity in the luxury segment, particularly if sellers are motivated to close before year-end.

For Sellers:

• December traditionally sees reduced buyer traffic, but this year's momentum suggests strategic listings could still achieve strong results. Properties that hit the market fresh in early December may capture serious buyers before the holiday pause.
• Pricing accuracy is non-negotiable—the 100% list-to-sale ratio means buyers won't negotiate on well-priced homes, but overpriced properties will sit through the holidays and require January price corrections.
• Waterfront sellers should expect 40–50 day timelines but can command substantial premiums with patient positioning. Entry-level luxury waterfront (under $2.5M) faces minimal buyer resistance.

Overall Market Prediction:

December will likely deliver 20–24 transactions—a modest decline from November's 26 sales as holiday scheduling impacts showings and closings. However, the underlying fundamentals remain remarkably strong. Median prices should stabilize in the $1.25M–$1.35M range barring any unusual sales mix, with continued rapid absorption for properties priced at or slightly below market value.

Inventory will likely tick up slightly as some sellers attempt year-end listings, potentially pushing months of inventory toward 1.0–1.2 months—still firmly in seller's market territory. The waterfront segment should maintain its premium positioning, with the $575K differential between waterfront and non-waterfront holding steady through year-end.

Looking into early 2026, I anticipate January seeing the traditional post-holiday slowdown with 15–20 transactions, followed by market reactivation in February and March as buyers emerge for spring. The underlying strength we've seen in November—rapid absorption, full-price sales, sustained waterfront premiums—suggests 2026 will open with continued seller leverage, particularly in the sub-$2M segment where inventory remains exceptionally tight.

Strategic Takeaways

If you're thinking of buying:

The market is sending clear signals: if you're serious about purchasing on Bainbridge, recognize that inventory scarcity and rapid absorption mean you'll need to act decisively. With properties selling in a median of just 12 days and achieving 100% of asking price, the window for due diligence and decision-making is compressed. This doesn't mean rushing into a poor decision—it means having your financing pre-approved, your must-haves clearly defined, and your team ready to move when you find the right property. The traditional winter slowdown hasn't materialized; serious buyers are active year-round when inventory is this limited. Expect to pay full asking price for well-priced properties, particularly below $1.5M where competition remains fierce. In the waterfront segment, you'll have more time (40+ days typical) and potentially modest negotiating room, but the 43% premium over non-waterfront demonstrates the substantial price you'll pay for water access. Budget accordingly and understand you're buying into a market where sellers hold leverage.

If you're thinking of selling:

November's results validate what we've been seeing all year: strategic pricing and quality presentation deliver rapid, full-price sales. The 100% list-to-sale ratio means buyers aren't negotiating on properties priced at true market value—but it also means overpricing will leave you sitting while correctly-priced homes move in days. Your first pricing decision is crucial; you won't get multiple chances to make a strong market impression. With less than one month of inventory, sellers maintain substantial leverage, but this advantage only holds if you're aligned with current values. The waterfront segment demonstrated particular strength in November—three waterfront luxury sales closed at or near asking price, and the overall 43% waterfront premium ($575K in absolute terms) shows no signs of compression. If you have waterfront property, recognize you're selling a scarce asset that commands exceptional premiums, though expect a 40–50 day timeline to find the right buyer. Even entering December and the traditional slower period, properties that hit the market fresh and priced accurately can still achieve strong results as year-end buyers remain active in this inventory-starved environment.

The bottom line:

November proved that Bainbridge's market strength isn't seasonal—it's structural. With 26 transactions matching last year's volume, a median 12-day sale timeline representing 78% improvement year-over-year, and 100% list-to-sale ratios signaling full-price expectations, the fundamentals remain remarkably strong heading into winter. The apparent year-over-year median price decline from $1.56M to $1.327M reflects transaction composition (fewer ultra-luxury sales this year) rather than value depreciation; the month-over-month 3.6% gain from October's $1.28M more accurately captures current pricing trajectories.

For sellers, the message is clear: less than one month of inventory means you maintain pricing power, but that advantage only materializes through strategic initial pricing. The market will pay full asking price—but only for homes priced at true market value. Waterfront properties command $575K premiums (43% over comparable non-waterfront) and are selling 13% faster than last year, making this an opportune moment for waterfront sellers willing to price strategically and wait for the right buyer. For buyers, the compressed timeline and full-price expectations mean preparation is crucial. You'll need financing ready, must-haves defined, and the ability to act decisively when you find the right property. The traditional winter slowdown hasn't arrived; serious buyers continue competing for limited inventory regardless of the calendar.

As we close out 2025, Bainbridge's luxury market remains in a clear seller's market—but one where pricing accuracy and market understanding separate successful transactions from stale listings. The velocity, the premiums, and the fundamentals all point to continued strength into 2026.

Your Questions Answered

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• Buyers: Let's discuss which neighborhoods align with your lifestyle and budget in the current market.
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Market data sourced from NWMLS for single-family residential homes (condos excluded). Analysis and insights by Jake Aspinwall, Windermere Real Estate.