Bainbridge Island Luxury Real Estate Market Report

September 2025

TL;DR: September brought a notable shift in Bainbridge Island's real estate landscape. With 35 homes sold—a 46% increase over last September—the market showed renewed momentum despite typical fall cooling patterns. The luxury segment above $2M remained remarkably strong with seven sales, while buyers gained modest negotiating leverage as the list-to-sale ratio dipped to 97.4%. Days on market increased to 60 days, signaling a transition toward more balanced conditions, though tightening inventory (1.9 months vs. 3.5 last year) continues to favor sellers with well-priced homes.

Market Overview

September brought a measured recalibration to Bainbridge Island's real estate market. While sales volume increased significantly year-over-year and inventory tightened considerably, pricing dynamics and market pace shifted in ways that create new opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Here's what the numbers tell us:

Key Statistics

September's data reveals a market in transition. The 46% year-over-year increase in sales volume (35 vs. 24 homes) demonstrates sustained buyer interest, but the softening in other metrics tells a more nuanced story. The median price dropped 11% from August ($1.35M to $1.20M) and fell 18% compared to last September—a meaningful correction that's putting homeownership within reach for more buyers.

Days on market climbed to 60 days, more than double last September's 28-day pace, signaling that buyers are taking their time and exercising greater selectivity. The list-to-sale ratio of 97.4%—down from 99.3% a year ago—indicates that while homes are still selling close to asking, negotiation has returned to the conversation. Perhaps most notably, months of inventory dropped dramatically from 3.5 last year to 1.9 today, suggesting that while the market is cooling on price, underlying demand remains robust.

Luxury Market Segment ($2M+)

The luxury market ($2M and above) demonstrated remarkable resilience in September, defying broader market cooling:

• Luxury Homes Sold: 7 properties
• Median Luxury Price: $2.90M
• Price Range: $2.00M - $4.30M
• Average Days on Market (Luxury): 42 days

Notable Luxury Sales

While respecting privacy, here are compelling transactions that showcase market trends:

Point White Waterfront - $4.30M

• 3 beds / 3.25 baths / 3,288 sqft
• Western exposure with sweeping Sound views
• Listed at $4.68M, sold for 91.9% of asking in just 13 days
• What this tells us: Exceptional waterfront properties with direct beach access continue to command premium pricing, though even at this tier, buyers secured an 8% discount—demonstrating that negotiation is possible across all price points.

Crystal Springs Estate - $4.00M

• 3 beds / 3.25 baths / 4,148 sqft
• Waterfront masterpiece with private dock
• Listed at $4.48M, sold for 89.3% of asking in 28 days
• What this tells us: Properties initially priced over $4M required recalibration, but exceptional homes with strong waterfront features still moved within a month when properly priced.

Hansen Road Waterfront - $3.95M

• 4 beds / 3.25 baths / 3,606 sqft
• Low-bank waterfront with beach access
• Listed at $4.40M, sold for 89.8% of asking in 35 days
• What this tells us: The $4M+ price point requires careful positioning. Sellers who remained flexible on pricing secured sales within 5 weeks, while those holding firm faced extended market time.

South Beach Sanctuary - $2.90M

• 3 beds / 3.0 baths / 3,124 sqft
• Private waterfront compound
• Listed at $3.38M, sold for 85.8% of asking in 57 days
• What this tells us: Even gorgeous waterfront properties required patience and price adjustments to attract today's more discerning luxury buyers.

Fletcher Bay Waterfront - $2.38M

• 2 beds / 3.5 baths / 2,392 sqft
• Modern waterfront design with private beach
• Sold at full list price
• What this tells us: Rare homes that are accurately priced from the start—particularly unique waterfront properties under $2.5M—can still achieve list price without concessions.

Waterfront vs. Non-Waterfront Analysis

Bainbridge Island's waterfront properties continue to command extraordinary premiums, though both segments showed increased inventory and longer marketing times:

Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 10 properties
• Median Waterfront Price: $2.32M
• Average Days on Market: 54 days
• Current Active Listings: 7

Non-Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 25 properties
• Median Price: $1.18M
• Average Days on Market: 48 days
• Current Active Listings: 22

Waterfront Premium: The median waterfront property commanded a $1.14M premium over non-waterfront homes this month, representing approximately 97% additional value for water access. While this premium remains substantial, it's worth noting that waterfront properties took slightly longer to sell (54 days vs. 48 days), suggesting that even waterfront buyers are taking time to evaluate options carefully.

With only 7 active waterfront listings currently available—representing less than a month of inventory at September's sales pace—waterfront supply remains exceptionally tight. However, the fact that these properties are taking nearly 8 weeks to sell, compared to 3 weeks last September, indicates a more thoughtful, deliberate market.

Neighborhood Spotlight

This month, several key neighborhoods demonstrated particularly interesting activity patterns:

Fletcher Bay

• Properties Sold: 4
• Price Range: $569K - $2.38M
• Notable Trends: Fletcher Bay emerged as September's volume leader, with a compelling mix of entry-level homes and luxury waterfront estates. The neighborhood's proximity to hiking trails, beach access, and central island location continues to attract diverse buyers. Median days on market of just 22 days—well below the island average—suggests strong demand for well-priced properties in this coveted neighborhood.

Port Madison

• Properties Sold: 3
• Price Range: $1.41M - $2.00M
• Notable Trends: Port Madison's luxury positioning remained evident, with all September sales exceeding $1.4M. The neighborhood's protected bay, private community amenities, and established waterfront character continue to command premium pricing. Properties took an average of 49 days to sell, reflecting the deliberate pace of today's luxury market.

Winslow

• Properties Sold: 4
• Price Range: $850K - $1.29M
• Notable Trends: Winslow's walkable charm and ferry proximity drove consistent activity across the middle market. With all four sales clustering between $850K and $1.3M, the neighborhood demonstrated strong appeal for buyers seeking urban convenience with island character. The 36-day average days on market suggests properties priced competitively moved efficiently.

Market Dynamics: What's Driving Activity

Several factors are influencing the current market:

1. Seasonal Transition Meeting Price Correction

   • September's metrics reflect both typical fall slowdown and a genuine market adjustment. The 46% increase in sales volume over last September indicates strong underlying demand, but the 18% year-over-year drop in median prices and the increase in days on market to 60 days signal that buyers are exercising more patience and selectivity. This represents a healthy correction after years of exceptional appreciation.

2. Inventory Dynamics Favor Sellers—But With Caveats

   • At 1.9 months of inventory, Bainbridge remains firmly in seller's market territory by traditional standards—and notably tighter than last September's 3.5 months. However, the increase in days on market from 28 to 60 days tells a more nuanced story. Supply is constrained, but buyers aren't rushing. Sellers who price aggressively still move quickly; those testing the market face extended timelines.

3. The Negotiation Window Has Opened

   • The list-to-sale ratio of 97.4%—down from 99.3% a year ago—indicates a subtle but meaningful shift. While homes are still selling close to asking, that 2% gap represents real dollars on Bainbridge prices (roughly $24,000 on a median-priced home). For buyers, this creates negotiating opportunity. For sellers, it underscores the importance of accurate initial pricing.

4. Luxury Market Resilience

   • While the overall market adjusted, the luxury segment above $2M showed surprising strength with seven transactions. Waterfront properties continue to command extraordinary premiums, though even affluent buyers are taking their time—luxury homes averaged 42 days on market versus the broader market's 60 days, suggesting well-heeled buyers recognize value when they see it.

Looking Ahead: October Forecast

Based on current market indicators, here's what I anticipate for October:

For Buyers:

• Your negotiating position strengthens further as we move deeper into fall. With over 60% of September sellers accepting below-ask offers, don't hesitate to submit competitive offers that reflect current market realities rather than last year's frenzy.
• Take your time. Properties are sitting longer, giving you space to conduct thorough due diligence, secure proper inspections, and make informed decisions without artificial urgency.
• Look for homes that have been on market for 45+ days—these sellers are often most motivated to negotiate, particularly as they face winter's traditional slowdown.

For Sellers:

• Price matters more than ever. The data is unambiguous: homes priced accurately from the start are selling, while those testing the market with aggressive pricing are sitting and ultimately reducing. Consider your agent's comparative market analysis seriously—it's based on what buyers are actually paying, not what you'd like them to pay.
• Preparation is paramount. In a market where buyers have choices, condition and presentation become deciding factors. Professional staging, photography, and addressing obvious deferred maintenance can mean the difference between a full-price offer and months on market.
• Flexibility creates opportunity. The sellers who secured sales in September were those willing to meet the market where it is rather than where it was. Consider creative terms, closing flexibility, or modest price adjustments to maintain momentum.

Overall Market Prediction: October will likely bring continued moderation. Expect the median price to remain in the $1.1M-$1.3M range, with days on market holding steady or increasing slightly. Inventory should remain tight but may tick up as sellers who delayed listing through summer make their move. The gap between list and sale prices will likely persist, reinforcing the importance of accurate pricing. This isn't a collapsing market—it's a recalibrating one, finding sustainable footing after years of exceptional appreciation. For patient, strategic participants on both sides, opportunity awaits.

Strategic Takeaways

If you're thinking of buying:

• Leverage the data. With 63% of homes selling below asking and days on market doubling year-over-year, you have negotiating power. Use it thoughtfully—submit offers based on comparable sales and property-specific considerations rather than hoping for arbitrary discounts.
• Focus on neighborhoods with quick absorption. Fletcher Bay's 22-day average days on market suggests strong demand and potential for value retention. Conversely, areas with slower sales may offer better negotiating opportunities but require more patience.
• Don't overreact to price swings. September's median of $1.21M represents a healthy correction from August's $1.35M, but Bainbridge remains one of the Puget Sound's most desirable communities with strong long-term fundamentals. If you're buying for lifestyle and holding for years, short-term volatility matters less than finding the right home.

If you're thinking of selling:

• Timing trumps testing. The homes that sold in September were those priced accurately from day one. The ones still sitting are those that initially tested the market with aspirational pricing. If you need to sell, price it right and capture the buyers still active before winter further slows activity.
• Consider the waterfront premium carefully. While waterfront commands a 97% premium, these properties also took longer to sell (54 days vs. 48 days for non-waterfront). If your home lacks direct beach access but enjoys water views, price accordingly—you're competing against full-waterfront inventory that's taking nearly two months to move.
• Highlight what makes Bainbridge unique. For out-of-market buyers from LA, Phoenix, or the Bay Area, emphasize what they can't get elsewhere: walkable downtown, ferry access to Seattle, top-rated schools, natural beauty, and a genuine sense of community. This island's lifestyle proposition remains compelling even as pricing normalizes.

The bottom line: September marked the clearest signal yet that Bainbridge Island's real estate market is transitioning from seller-dominated frenzy to healthier, more balanced conditions. Buyers have leverage; sellers need realistic pricing. Exceptional properties still command premium prices, but even the best homes require thoughtful positioning. For those willing to work with—rather than against—current market dynamics, opportunity exists on both sides of the transaction. The question isn't whether this market will reward participants, but rather whether participants will adapt their strategies to this market.

Your Questions Answered

Have questions about how these market trends affect your specific situation? I offer complimentary consultations and detailed property valuations.

• Buyers: Let's discuss which neighborhoods align with your lifestyle and budget in the current market—and how to position yourself to succeed when you find the right home.
• Sellers: Curious what your home is worth right now? I'll provide a detailed, data-driven analysis that reflects actual market conditions, not aspirational pricing.

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Market data sourced from NWMLS. Analysis and insights by Jake Aspinwall, Windermere Real Estate.