Bainbridge Island Luxury Real Estate Market Report

October 2025

TL;DR: October 2025 showed stable transaction volume matching last year's 27 sales, while median prices climbed 16.6% to $1.28M—signaling strong underlying demand despite slower market velocity. The pace has moderated from last year's 28-day average to 44 days, reflecting a more measured buying environment. Luxury waterfront properties demonstrated exceptional strength with a median of $3.875M, while inventory expanded slightly to 2.2 months from last October's 2.5 months. This remains a seller's market, though the frenetic pace of 2024 has evolved into a more sustainable equilibrium.

Market Overview

October delivered characteristically mixed signals to Bainbridge Island's real estate market—fewer transactions but stronger pricing, reflecting a market transitioning into its seasonal rhythm. Here's what the numbers tell us:

Key Statistics

The 16.6% year-over-year median price increase demonstrates robust market appreciation, while the 57% increase in average days on market (from 28 to 44 days) signals a more measured buying environment compared to last year's rapid pace. The list-to-sale ratio dipped slightly to 98.2%—still strong, but indicating buyers are achieving modest negotiating leverage versus last year's 100.1%. Transaction volume remained flat year-over-year at 27 sales while declining 22.9% from September's seasonal peak. Inventory expanded to 2.2 months from last October's 2.5 months and September's 1.9 months, suggesting modest supply improvement but still firmly in seller's market territory (under 3 months).

Luxury Market Segment ($2M+)

The luxury market ($2M and above) demonstrated remarkable strength in October:

• Luxury Homes Sold: 5 properties
• Median Luxury Price: $3.875M
• Price Range: $2.35M - $4.95M
• Average Days on Market (Luxury): 13 days

Notable Luxury Sales

While respecting privacy, here are some compelling transactions that showcase market trends:

Bainbridge Island Waterfront - $4.95M

• 3 bed / 3.25 bath / 4,687 sqft
• Waterfront with city, mountain, sound, and territorial views
• Sold at asking price in 28 days
• What this tells us: Premium waterfront properties with exceptional views command top-of-market pricing and demonstrate patient sellers can still achieve full price, even in the luxury segment.

South Beach Waterfront - $4.298M

• 4 bed / 4 bath / 5,160 sqft
• Waterfront with mountain, ocean, sea, sound, and territorial views
• Sold at asking price in just 9 days
• What this tells us: Prestigious South Beach continues to attract swift action from qualified buyers. Properties offering comprehensive westward views and prime beach access are moving exceptionally fast.

South Beach Estate - $3.875M

• 4 bed / 4 bath / 4,746 sqft
• Waterfront with mountain, sound, and territorial views
• Sold at asking price in 10 days
• What this tells us: South Beach's second luxury sale in October underscores the neighborhood's enduring appeal. The rapid transaction pace (10 days) demonstrates strong demand for well-appointed waterfront properties in this coveted location.

West Port Madison Waterfront - $3.65M

• 3 bed / 3.25 bath / 3,898 sqft
• Waterfront with sound and territorial views
• Sold at asking price in just 4 days
• What this tells us: The Port Madison area continues to attract discerning buyers seeking privacy and natural beauty. A 4-day sale demonstrates that properly priced waterfront properties in desirable locations can generate immediate action.

Waterfront vs. Non-Waterfront Analysis

Bainbridge Island's waterfront properties demonstrated substantial year-over-year appreciation:

Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 6 properties (vs. 4 in Oct '24)
• Median Waterfront Price: $3.763M (up 46% YoY from $2.575M)
• Average Days on Market: 39 days (vs. 17 days in Oct '24)
• Months of Waterfront Inventory: ~1.5 months (based on available data)

Non-Waterfront Market

• Sold This Month: 21 properties
• Median Price: $1.215M
• Average Days on Market: 45 days

Waterfront Premium: The median waterfront property commanded a $2.548M premium over non-waterfront homes this month, representing approximately 210% additional value for water access. The year-over-year waterfront median price appreciation of 46% substantially outpaced the overall market's 16.6% gain, reflecting sustained demand for the island's limited waterfront inventory. Waterfront properties now take longer to sell (39 days versus 17 days last year), suggesting even affluent buyers are conducting more thorough due diligence, though the sub-1.5 months of waterfront inventory continues to create competitive conditions for buyers seeking direct water access.

Neighborhood Spotlight

This month, several neighborhoods saw notable activity:

Rolling Bay

• Properties Sold: 4
• Price Range: $935K - $1.39M
• Median Price: $1.092M
• Notable Trends: Rolling Bay demonstrated consistent mid-market activity with sales clustered around the $1M mark, appealing to buyers seeking more space while maintaining relative proximity to amenities.

Pleasant Beach

• Properties Sold: 2
• Price Range: $975K - $1.598M
• Median Price: $1.287M
• Notable Trends: Pleasant Beach's eastern shoreline continues to attract buyers seeking waterfront access at more accessible price points than the western-facing beaches, though inventory remains extremely limited.

Fletcher Bay

• Properties Sold: 2
• Price Range: $809K - $1.265M
• Median Price: $1.037M
• Notable Trends: Fletcher Bay showed solid activity in the million-dollar range, offering buyers a balance of location and value in this established island neighborhood.

Market Dynamics: What's Driving Activity

Several factors are influencing the current market:

1. Market Normalization

   • The 57% increase in average days on market year-over-year (from 28 to 44 days) signals a return to more sustainable transaction timelines. This isn't weakness—it's the evolution from 2024's rapid-fire pace to a healthier, more deliberate market. The shift from 100.1% to 98.2% list-to-sale ratio confirms buyers are regaining modest negotiating leverage.

2. Strong Price Fundamentals

   • The 16.6% year-over-year median price increase demonstrates robust underlying demand despite the slower pace. Properties are taking longer to sell, but they're commanding significantly higher prices when they do. This combination suggests a market with confident sellers meeting selective—but willing—buyers at elevated price points.

3. Waterfront Segment Leadership

   • Waterfront properties' 46% year-over-year appreciation (median rising from $2.575M to $3.763M) substantially outperformed the broader market. This segment continues to attract high-net-worth buyers, particularly from California and the Bay Area, seeking privacy, views, and lifestyle amenities that only direct water access provides. All five luxury sales this month were waterfront properties, underscoring this segment's strength.

4. Inventory Stabilization

   • With 2.2 months of inventory—up modestly from 1.9 months in September but down from 2.5 months last October—supply remains constrained but has improved slightly. This modest inventory expansion, combined with the slower pace, suggests the market is finding a more sustainable equilibrium between buyers and sellers after last year's more frenetic conditions.

Looking Ahead: November Forecast

Based on current market indicators, here's what I anticipate for November:

For Buyers:

• Expect the traditional holiday slowdown to bring slightly less competition, particularly for non-waterfront properties. However, don't expect dramatic price reductions—inventory remains too tight.
• Luxury waterfront properties will likely continue moving quickly. If you're targeting this segment, be prepared to act decisively.
• November and December can occasionally present opportunities as motivated sellers make year-end moves, though this tends to be more anecdotal than systematic.

For Sellers:

• If you're considering a spring listing, now is the time to begin preparing. Homes that hit the market in late January through March typically capture peak buyer attention.
• Don't assume the holiday period means you should wait. Well-priced properties in desirable locations can still move quickly, and there are fewer competing listings.
• For luxury waterfront properties, the data suggests strong demand persists regardless of season—if you're considering selling, don't let the calendar deter you.

Overall Market Prediction: November will likely see transaction volume remain similar to October's pace (30-35 sales), with continued price stability supported by limited inventory. The luxury waterfront segment should maintain its momentum, while the broader market settles into its winter rhythm. Spring 2026 will be the telling period—if inventory remains this constrained, we could see another strong seller's market emerge.

Strategic Takeaways

If you're thinking of buying:

The market has evolved from last year's rapid-fire pace (28 days on market) to a more measured cadence (44 days), giving buyers meaningful time to conduct proper due diligence. The shift from 100.1% to 98.2% list-to-sale ratio indicates modest negotiating leverage has returned—a healthy development after last year's seller-dominated conditions. However, with 2.2 months of inventory, this remains firmly a seller's market. The waterfront segment, in particular, has seen extraordinary appreciation (up 46% year-over-year), reflecting genuine scarcity meeting persistent demand. If you're targeting luxury waterfront properties, understand that while you have more time than last year's buyers, competition remains real and inventory remains severely limited.

If you're thinking of selling:

Year-over-year price appreciation of 16.6% demonstrates strong underlying market fundamentals, with waterfront properties showing exceptional growth (up 46%). The 98.2% list-to-sale ratio tells an important story: while last year's 100.1% ratio meant sellers consistently achieved full asking price, today's market requires slightly more realistic pricing expectations. Properties now take an average of 44 days to sell versus 28 days last year—buyers are more deliberate, conducting thorough inspections and comparisons rather than competing in multiple-offer scenarios. This means pricing accuracy is more critical than ever. Overpriced properties will sit longer, even in a supply-constrained market with just 2.2 months of inventory. But properties priced to market move efficiently and command strong values, particularly in the luxury waterfront segment where scarcity continues to drive exceptional appreciation.

The bottom line:

October's year-over-year metrics reveal a market that has matured into a healthier equilibrium. Volume remained stable at 27 sales, prices climbed 16.6%, and the pace normalized—properties now take 44 days to sell versus 28 days last year. The shift from 100.1% to 98.2% list-to-sale ratio represents an important recalibration: buyers have regained modest negotiating leverage, while sellers still command strong appreciation. The waterfront segment's 46% appreciation reflects fundamental scarcity meeting sustained demand from affluent buyers. For sellers: proper pricing is now more critical than last year's seller-dominated conditions. For buyers: you have more time to conduct diligence and slight negotiating power has returned, but don't confuse a more measured pace with buyer leverage—at 2.2 months of inventory, this remains a seller's market where well-positioned properties command premium pricing.

Your Questions Answered

Have questions about how these market trends affect your specific situation? I offer complimentary consultations and detailed property valuations.

• Buyers: Let's discuss which neighborhoods align with your lifestyle and budget in the current market.
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Market data sourced from NWMLS. Analysis and insights by Jake Aspinwall, Windermere Real Estate.